Johannesburg’s multiplying crises are no longer simply a local government problem. South Africa cannot restore growth, expand opportunity and attract investment while Johannesburg continues its disastrous decline.

This is the crux of Joburg in Jeopardy, a new report launched by the Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) today.

This is the first report in a new CDE series, Johannesburg Matters: Fixing South Africa’s growth engine, a major research programme into the crisis confronting the city and what will be required to rebuild it.

“Preventing the collapse of the city must become a national priority,” said CDE executive director Ann Bernstein. “Johannesburg is the one municipality whose failure would make national success impossible. It raises the critical question: if Johannesburg cannot be fixed, can we fix South Africa?”

The empirical evidence and international experience is overwhelming: cities are central to a country’s national growth and development. Johannesburg remains the centre of the country’s financial and corporate economy, the source of the largest share of tax revenue, and a critical arena of employment, investment and opportunity. The city is South Africa’s principal economic gateway to the world and sits at the heart of the country’s urban system.

“Johannesburg has long been South Africa’s largest and most important city, with enormous potential for economic growth and development that could provide ladders out of poverty for millions of people,” said Bernstein.

“The city’s continued decline damages the prospects of the poor, the middle class and business, both within the city and across the county,” said Bernstein.

The CDE report released today shows that the City is failing across every dimension of its mandate:

• Johannesburg is in severe financial distress: Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana has warned that the City owes creditors R25.2 billion but holds only R3.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
• Basic infrastructure is falling apart: Johannesburg Water has identified an infrastructure renewal backlog of R26.6 billion. At the current pace, fully replacing the City’s ageing pipe network would take close to two centuries.
• Electricity: The City has an estimated electricity infrastructure backlog of R44 billion, recording 54,132 power outages between July and December 2025.
• Johannesburg is failing to generate jobs: In the second quarter of 2026, Johannesburg recorded the highest official unemployment rate among South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities at 35.9 per cent. Between April 2025 and June 2026, Johannesburg lost 90 000 jobs. Cape Town, by contrast, gained 57 000.

These failures are not separate problems. They reinforce one another. “Poor governance weakens municipal finances; weak finances undermine maintenance and investment; failing infrastructure raises the cost of doing business; businesses and skilled people leave; and a weakening economy makes the City’s finances still harder to repair,” said Bernstein

CDE’s work has been built on the conviction that the city cannot be turned around without a significant change in its politics and governance. Since 2016 the city has had nine different mayors and eight different coalitions. No mayor completed a full five-year term. “As a result,” said Bernstein, “stable long-term planning has all but disappeared, while appointments, priorities and policies have shifted with the political winds.”

The city’s crisis is not primarily technical, it is political.

 “The November local government elections are critical to Johannesburg’s future,” said Bernstein. “A continuation of the current political and governance dysfunction would deepen and probably accelerate the city’s decline. A weak and unstable coalition would struggle to take difficult decisions, appoint capable people, attract partners and investors or sustain a multi-year programme of reform.”

“The choice facing voters is a stark and vitally important one,” added Bernstein.

“Johannesburg can recover,” said Bernstein. “We have to fix what has been broken but this is only possible if the elections produce stable, honest political leadership and they then mobilise the best possible people, including from outside political parties to manage reform and delivery.”

Capable new leadership will not be able to fix Johannesburg alone. Success will require effective partnerships that build on Johannesburg’s many extraordinary assets, including its vibrant private sector, deep financial markets, many educational institutions, and its dynamic citizens and civic organisations.

 “These assets provide the basis for recovery – but only if they are matched by effective governance and bold reforms. And the chances of success will also require a special response from national government,” said Bernstein.

“Amidst the current gloom, it is important to hold on to the enormous potential of Johannesburg: a place where young people can build a future, businesses can expand, new startups emerge, and individuals can live and see their families prosper,” said Bernstein. “The city can once again become a powerful engine of growth, opportunity and upward mobility for its current residents and for the country as a whole.”

CDE’s Johannesburg Matters series

CDE is an independent think tank. It is not involved in party politics.

“We are a national resource, committed to building a prosperous democracy with expanding opportunities for everyone. Our research and recommendations are public and available to all,” said Bernstein. “Our interest is in the city’s future and its contribution to national economic growth and development.”

Over the next ten weeks, CDE will publish a number of short reports in the Johannesburg Matters series, each backed by independent research, covering the most important foundational issues: the state of the City’s finances, organised crime and corruption in and around the city, the governance crisis within the municipal administration and Johannesburg’s economy. A final report will draw these strands together into an agenda for rebuilding the city after the elections.

“A thriving Johannesburg would be a powerful engine of growth for the country, driving employment and upward mobility. The opposite is also true: a failing city will drag South Africa down, as it has been doing for some time,” said Bernstein.

Joburg in Jeopardy is available here.

For media enquiries and interview requests, please contact Refiloe Benjamin: media@cde.org.za | 079 863 6134

ABOUT JOHANNESBURG MATTERS: Fixing South Africa’s growth engine

Johannesburg Matters: Fixing South Africa’s growth engine is a new series of reports from the Centre for Development and Enterprise, based on a large research programme into the major challenges confronting the city. The series will provide analysis and recommendations that a new political leadership and reformed administration could implement after the elections as they commence the difficult job of rebuilding South Africa’s most important urban centre.

ABOUT THE CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ENTERPRISE

CDE is an independent policy research and advocacy organisation. It is South Africa’s leading development think tank, focusing on critical development issues and their relationship to economic growth and democratic consolidation. Through examining South African realities and international experience, coupled with high-level forums, workshops and roundtables, CDE formulates practical policy proposals outlining ways in which South Africa can tackle major social and economic challenges. CDE has a special focus on the role of business and markets in development.